Treasuries have once again proven their safe-haven status during recent risk-off episodes, with yields falling sharply as equities sold off. AnalysisInvestors rotated into government bonds amid renewed geopolitical tensions and weak earnings from major corporates. Demand was particularly strong at…
Short-term interest rate (STIR) futures are diverging from central bank guidance, with markets pricing in more rate cuts than policymakers suggest. AnalysisTraders remain skeptical of central banks’ hawkish signals, expecting slowing growth and disinflation to force policy easing. For example,…
Volatility has remained elevated in rates markets, while options pricing reveals anomalies across maturities. Implied volatility often exceeds realized, creating opportunities for tactical strategies. AnalysisIn rates markets, realized volatility has fallen modestly, but options pricing remains stubbornly high. This disconnect…
Corporate bond issuance surged this month, with investment-grade supply exceeding $150 billion in just three weeks. Demand has been strong, but the sheer pace raises questions about sustainability and investor positioning. AnalysisIssuers are taking advantage of relatively stable spreads and…
The U.S. Treasury yield curve shifted again this week, with the short end rising faster than the long end. The 2-year yield moved 12 basis points higher, while the 10-year lagged with only a 4-basis-point move. This renewed flattening signals…
Credit spreads have tightened notably over the past week, even as interest rate markets remain highly volatile. Investment-grade spreads moved 5–10 basis points tighter, while high-yield saw modest outperformance relative to Treasuries. This divergence between spread tightening and rate uncertainty…